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Search resuls for: "Irving Fisher"


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But exactly how inflation is hurting, helping and confusing people is hard to understand. There’s a fancy name for the common human failure to see past the gaudy prices largely created by inflation. This widespread inability to recognize what money is really worth is known as money illusion. Irving Fisher, a Yale economist, wrote a book about it nearly a century ago. But their insights tend to be forgotten when prices are fairly stable, as they were in the United States until three years ago.
Persons: you’re, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes Organizations: Yale Locations: British, United States
High valuations, despite their little influence on short-term returns, often mean devastating outcomes for investors over a longer period. There's also what he calls "poor market internals," which he tracks through a proprietary measure that monitors the breadth of individual stock performance. Hussman FundsThe combination of poor internals and high valuations are why Hussman says losses could come out of nowhere, and quickly. "Historically, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market action has created a 'trap door' situation for the market," Hussman said. Rather, the steepest market losses have generally emerged from that combination of market conditions, and these losses tend to emerge abruptly, without additional warning."
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Irving Fisher catastrophically, Here's, There's, they've, Buckle, Hussman bullish Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust
David Rosenberg warned the buzz around stocks today is similar to the mania before past crashes. The economist noted that American consumers are running short of cash and struggling to borrow more. The veteran economist and Rosenberg Research president also rang the alarm on the US economy in a research note on Wednesday. "The balloon does have a lot of hot air in it," Rosenberg noted, suggesting it was hard to say when speculation and emotion would cease trumping fundamentals and rational thought. That has raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and wreaked havoc on debt-fueled industries such as commercial real estate.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Irving Fisher, Abby Joseph Cohen, Chuck Prince's doozy, you've, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, North, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Big Tech, Consumers, New York, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
The amount of mortgage debt rose even more sharply. This would require lenders to fix total monthly payments – of both interest and principal – relative to the outstanding mortgage balance. When interest rates rise sharply, as is happening now, repayments might be less than the monthly interest bill. The amount of mortgage debt outstanding would then increase as unpaid interest is added to the principal – a situation known as “negative amortisation”. Since borrowers always hand over a proportion of their income, mortgage payments wouldn’t shrink when interest rates decline.
Persons: Irving Fisher, , , Neal Hudson, Michael Gove, Patrick Macaskie, Victor Dodig, Edward Chancellor, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Bank of, Fiscal Studies, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: United Kingdom, , Britain, England, Bank of England, United States, Canada
The economists’ solution – often called the Chicago Plan – was to remove commercial banks from the money-creating business. One of the main problems of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is that it would compete with old-fashioned bank deposits. With the digital money supply increasing in line with the economy’s potential growth, roughly as Friedman advised, inflation would soon come under control. Non-bank lenders like Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would have an enhanced role under the digital Chicago Plan. At present, there’s little chance of the digital Chicago Plan coming to pass.
Interest rate delusion may be biggest error of all
  + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The false idea exposed by the current bear market is that interest rates would remain low indefinitely. The belief that interest rates would remain at permanently low levels could prove the most costly error of all. The lowest-ever interest rates gave us the “Everything Bubble”. Now that interest rates are rising, everything is at risk. The pension funds faced margin calls on their loans, and the bond market seized up as they scrambled to raise cash.
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